Peter A Clarke

Given the hysterical political reportage on the demise of Malcolm Turnbull I am surprised they haven’t regarded today’s anniversaries as propitious; the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914, leading to the outbreak of the First World War and Catherine the Great’s Coup in St Petersburg in 1762.  Why not draw those sort of bows?  Why not say Utegate is the political equivalent of a political war exploding bringing down the House of Liberal. Or Utegate precipitating a coup by Hockey (the Catherine figure).  They are about as logical as some of the prognostications doing the rounds at the moment. 

The kick off to this twaddle was the AC Neilsen, Newspoll and Galaxy polls taken late last week and over the weekend.  No doubt it was bad news all around for Turnbull with the false email scandal.  A bit like a witness turning 180 degrees in the witness box and putting a big gaping hole in what you thought was a water tight argument.  The Age splash Support for Turnbull plunges is relatively modest compared to the 11 Turnbull and Liberal disaster related stories in today’s Australian, ranging from the shrill Polling smashes Turnbull   by the chief shrillmeister Dennis Shanahan.  He and Angela of the same surname are either in over drive or asleep.  His thesis, if one can be so generous, is that Turnbull’s political career “… has been smashed in just one week..”  What to make of Greg Melluish’s Talking about my generation of leaders where he somehow defines the philosophy of Australian PMs by the date of their birth.  And of course the piece ends with the usual nod to the importance of the protaganists being baby boomers.  A complete nonsensical filler.  Melluish should at least be grateful for the Punch’s offerings Liberals teetering on the brink of irrelevance.  It is the silliest of all the offerings, positing the prediction that the Liberal Party might become permanently irrelevant.  C’mon!   Every so often a bit of historical perspective goes a long way. 

Even Andrew Bolt, general spear carrier for the Right, can’t help himself but write off Turnbull on his blog.  

The most disappointing analysis is by those who should know better, psepsologists on the net.  Pollbludger usually engages in some quality analysis.  Not today.  I guess being in the crikey stable has to mean a nod to melodrama.  Pollytics provides something of a substantive analysis for this polling while Mumble gives the pithiest and most sensible commentary, much along the lines of “this too shall pass..”  although it can’t help but play predictor on who is possible leader in waiting, Peter Dutton, and the next member for Wentworth, Tom Switzer.  Given Mumble thought McCain would win the US Poll he should keep to looking at polling (or maybe not).

The unfortunate reality is that in Australia the media runs in a pack and follows the same broad trajectory.  When I worked as a speech writer in Parliament House one of my most vivid memories was one day seeing Michelle Gratten, Alan Ramsey, Laurie Oakes and Paul Kelly, the doyens of the press gallery, having coffee together in the staff cafeteria.  It typified for me the monochrome nature of the political reportage and analysis.   And sure enough the current analysis are hues of basically the same colour, Turnbull is circling the drain and the ALP’s performance in Parliament was magnificent.  Mmmmm…  Michelle Grattan is the master of following the trend, fall in the love with the genius of the government until even she senses the tipping point and then hop onto the other side of the fence and describe a government in decay.  Her piece Leader ‘nuked’, but Libs are stuck with him follows the script, Act 1 scene 2. In a way it would be better in Australia if it either followed the British experience with newspapers, preferably owned by different proprietors, having marked differing philosophical outlooks or think tanks which produce active commentators, as happens in the US.  Politics and reporting is not a science.  There are differing perspectives.  And perhaps having someone who looks more than a week on either side of a story for perspective might be a good thing.   

A reality check everybody.  Maybe Turnbull might not make it to the next election but remember it takes a lot to knock over a leader, of whatever party.  It is more common these days but it is still a rare event.  How long did Crean dangle before he was cut down.  And Beazley.  Latham did himself as did Hewson after an excruciatingly slow decline.  Nelson was dead man walking for most of his leadership, that is for over a year. When Howard and Peacock faced off against each other it was a continuous battle of attrition over 7 years not swift and sure stabbing followed by ascension to the thrown.    Even in touchy feely parties it took  some serious undermining to finish off Janet Powell and Meg Lees in the Austalian Democrats.  Leaders and parties have very bad weeks and good weeks.  One bad turn rarely decides the future of a leader or, in the legal context, the outcome of a trial.